tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post3487006679439230329..comments2024-03-12T10:25:00.985+08:00Comments on 取之有道: 價值投資者出招時候止凡http://www.blogger.com/profile/13815373715261739551noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-52391037423664959472020-01-15T23:53:27.226+08:002020-01-15T23:53:27.226+08:00Thanks. This is a good way to est the PE. Thus acc...Thanks. This is a good way to est the PE. Thus according to Graham, given current AAA bond at 3-4pct, a reasonable PE is 12-16x. Graham is very conservative and said not going over 10x. I think that should not be a hard rule. RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14228946004395947595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-12215640063668783542020-01-15T15:08:26.331+08:002020-01-15T15:08:26.331+08:00Benjamin Graham在1976年9月20日有一篇訪談,是他晚年推薦投資廉價股的最後的一篇建...Benjamin Graham在1976年9月20日有一篇訪談,是他晚年推薦投資廉價股的最後的一篇建議,文章叫做The Simplest Way to Select Bargain Stocks,是一篇特別報告,刊登在Meidcal Economics上。他在文章上推薦低PE準則(PE<7倍),最高也不容許高於10倍。RC兄關心的長期低利率問題(直接影響到AAA Bond Yields)他也回應了,如下:<br />Q: Why a P-E ratio of seven instead of, say, nine or five ?<br /><br />A: One of the ways to determine what you should pay for stocks at any given time is to look at what quality bonds are yielding. If bond yields are high, you want to buy stocks cheaply, meaning you will look for relatively low P-Es. And if bond yields drop, then you can pay more for the stock and accept a higher P-E. As a rule of thumb in pricing stocks this way, I select only those issues whose earnings-to-price ratio – simply the P-E in reverse – is at least twice the average current yield on top-quality (triple-A) corporate bonds.<br /><br />Q: Give me an example.<br /><br />A: Sure. Just double the bond yield and divide the result into 100. Right now the average cuurent yield of AAA bonds is something over 7 percent. Doubling that you get 14, and 14 goes into 100 roughly seven times. So in building a portfolio using my system, the top price you should be willing to pay for a stock today is seven times earnings. If a stock´s P-E is higher thans even, you wouldn´t include it.<br /><br />Q: What if AAA bond yields go down to, say, 6 percent?<br /><br />A: Then the acceptable P-E goes up. Twice six is 12; divide 12 into 100 and you get a maximum P-E of eight. However, in my opinion, you should never buy a stock with a P-E ratio over 10 no matter how low bond yields get. Conversely, in my system, a P-E of seven is always allowable no matter how high bond yields go.<br />ch liuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01201021181210079869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-68539861989790267392020-01-15T09:13:42.809+08:002020-01-15T09:13:42.809+08:00我是指大市指數,個股有其他獨立因數,當然不能因為單單指數PE低以買入個股。一籃子的財務指標是相關的,...我是指大市指數,個股有其他獨立因數,當然不能因為單單指數PE低以買入個股。一籃子的財務指標是相關的,高PE, 高PB, 低yield ,反之亦然。Ch 兄研究的是過去的指標,但interest rate 長期在2pct 以下,而企業持續增長,是没發生過。所以norm 有否不同了?我自己沒有答案。RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14228946004395947595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-20496873570321082362020-01-15T07:50:17.625+08:002020-01-15T07:50:17.625+08:00多謝建議。好多投資者都以為買賣決定只取決於單一考慮,股息?PE?PB?但其實是一籃子的因素,這篇文章...多謝建議。好多投資者都以為買賣決定只取決於單一考慮,股息?PE?PB?但其實是一籃子的因素,這篇文章輕輕都說了三四個了。止凡https://www.blogger.com/profile/13815373715261739551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-82625774536520744182020-01-15T00:52:59.256+08:002020-01-15T00:52:59.256+08:00“blog問”是blog文之筆誤,見諒!“blog問”是blog文之筆誤,見諒!ch liuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01201021181210079869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-63464083942013154872020-01-15T00:51:51.259+08:002020-01-15T00:51:51.259+08:00首先,我建議止凡兄這篇blog問加上一個問號:
《價值投資者出招時候?》
其次,執行Graham的B...首先,我建議止凡兄這篇blog問加上一個問號:<br />《價值投資者出招時候?》<br />其次,執行Graham的Buy-Low-Sell-High Approach假如使用單一的Criterion是非常危險的,所以,必須自己整合好一張印好的僅僅是一頁的清單表格,裡面除了巴菲特所說的Book Value Criterion(賬面值準則)、Strong Financial Position(強有力的財務狀況準則)與P/E Criterion(市盈率準則)之外還有很多個Criteria。如何從這一個“僅僅是一頁的清單表格”再進一步整合出一個更簡單有效的清單組合去回測與前側不同的市場以恆定其適用性與投資績效。<br />第三、市場是動態與有機的,絕不能一本通書讀到老。如,Graham推薦的P/E Criterion(市盈率準則)是10倍或以下,但是,香港恆指的過去10年的平均PE則只有12倍,10年的平均股息率則是3.45%,那麼,以2020年1月14日恆生指數的PE是11.53倍於股息率是3.44%買進任何“跌得非常厲害的零售股”,享用的安全邊際足夠嗎?會不會進一步下跌得更慘烈?以Graham推薦的10倍或以下的準則買進,享用的安全邊際足夠嗎?<br />第四、恆生指數過去10年的平均數是23748點,平均PE是12倍,平均股息率是3.45%,你曾計算過恆生指數中的HSI-Com&Ind的過去10年的平均點數、平均PE與平均股息率嗎?究竟這兩組數據需要下跌至其平均數值多少才享有較有利與勝算的數學期望值(Mathematical Expectation)?所以,千萬不要單單看股價下跌了多少就進場!<br />總之,操作Graham的Buy-Low-Sell-High Approach也是很複雜的。“在水桶裡射魚”聽起來很簡單,我對香港的市場做了很多的回測與前測,但仍還沒有買進香港任何一張股票!香港過去10年一共發生了3次操作Graham的Buy-Low-Sell-High Approach,第一次在2008年10月27日與2009年3月9日,第二次在2011年10月4日。第3次在2016年2月12日。我在2016年2月11日做了一個前測(Forward Test)績效甚佳。但一定先學會Price The Market與Price The Stocks,不然會很危險。<br />ch liuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01201021181210079869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-33940734204217710182020-01-14T19:23:46.099+08:002020-01-14T19:23:46.099+08:00以PE 測市有其局限性,因為 PE 受interest rate 影向。好多textbook 講市場...以PE 測市有其局限性,因為 PE 受interest rate 影向。好多textbook 講市場歷史 PE 15x ,長期利率 5-6 pct 左右,是指過去30年。但美国現在十年期利率長期低於2pct, 投資者會否接受更高PE? 30倍40倍?RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14228946004395947595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-76926929762378831002020-01-14T07:38:48.262+08:002020-01-14T07:38:48.262+08:00ch兄在這裡留下不少"腳毛",哈哈。ch兄在這裡留下不少"腳毛",哈哈。止凡https://www.blogger.com/profile/13815373715261739551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-51085724285514595302020-01-14T02:29:29.594+08:002020-01-14T02:29:29.594+08:00想實踐Graham的Buy-Low-Sell-High Approach可以參考一下止凡兄下面三個帖...想實踐Graham的Buy-Low-Sell-High Approach可以參考一下止凡兄下面三個帖子與跟帖:<br />《從百萬到億半的故事》<br />https://cpleung826.blogspot.com/2016/07/blog-post.html#comment-form<br />《在水桶裡射魚》<br />https://cpleung826.blogspot.com/2016/07/blog-post_17.html<br />《說難不難的投資操作》<br />http://cpleung826.blogspot.com/2018/05/blog-post_6.htmlch liuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01201021181210079869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-50745966990472624952020-01-13T19:56:10.875+08:002020-01-13T19:56:10.875+08:00這幾個point看來不錯,值得深入探討一下這幾個point看來不錯,值得深入探討一下止凡https://www.blogger.com/profile/13815373715261739551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-38754187464874170302020-01-13T08:16:25.703+08:002020-01-13T08:16:25.703+08:00Any interest to have a look in 32.hk?
1. Mr Cheung...Any interest to have a look in 32.hk?<br />1. Mr Cheung is buying from 6% to 22%, and keep buying everyday at 12.1<br />2. Very steady cash flow until 2023<br />3. Long divided record<br />4. Healthy balance sheet, no debt<br />5. Will be under net cash level <br />6. 88% net profit margin from tunnel income including tax shieldWHThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15275227221221584527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-43889260241907719422020-01-12T23:37:07.160+08:002020-01-12T23:37:07.160+08:00爆升了,細價股好難買貨,入不夠貨,哈哈。爆升了,細價股好難買貨,入不夠貨,哈哈。止凡https://www.blogger.com/profile/13815373715261739551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3886431187196458619.post-74369059468407518572020-01-12T23:28:00.377+08:002020-01-12T23:28:00.377+08:00Dickson cries out, "113!"Dickson cries out, "113!"<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com